Last weekend the Black Sea export corridor deal was renewed. Despite demands from Ukraine for a minimum extension of 120 days, all parties ultimately agreed to Russia's proposal of a maximum of 60 days. Russia said an extension of the deal beyond mid-May will depend on the removal of some western sanctions.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Wheat markets have endured a volatile week's trading with focus on the talks between representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the UN as they discussed the renewal of the Black Sea export deal.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat futures markets continued to fall this week and have now lost 14% of their value since the end of 2022. The primary drivers for the market negativity are twofold. Firstly, the ongoing competition from cheap Russian wheat exports following Russia's record 2022 wheat crop; and secondly, a strong belief the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN will renew at the end of next week. If this is the case, Ukraine will continue to ship cheaply offered wheat, corn and other grains on world markets. This makes it likely the US, the EU and other major exporters will be left with burdensome year end stocks.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
A strong Russian presence in the global wheat export market and a firm assumption that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed later this month have caused US wheat futures to slip to their lowest level for 17 months this week.
European wheat markets have fallen sharply this week, dropping back to price levels seen towards the end of last month. Markets had previously risen due to concerns around the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN not likely to renew next month, which will be when the timeline for the previous agreement comes to an end. Recent comments from Russian officials suggested some dissatisfaction that the deal was not working in its favour. However, in a public address this week, President Putin made no comments to indicate the deal will not be renewed. Despite this, a date for renegotiation has not yet been set. Ukraine will ask Turkey and the UN for a one-year extension to the export deal and to expand it to include the ports of Mykolaiv.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Lincolnshire farmer, Tim Lamyman is synonymous with growing record combinable crop yields, so much so that he's now outdone his previous successes.
Following Tim's achievements in 2021, we were thrilled to learn of his recent accolades, having achieved a new world record for winter wheat with a staggering 17.96t/ha and specific weight of 83.6kg/hl with the DSV variety Champion.
There were few developments in the wheat market this week, with attention remaining focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Next week will mark one year since the conflict began and this has seen London wheat futures reach their highest level since the 24th March.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week world wheat markets continued their February recovery, shaking off the January blues. London wheat futures reached their highest level since 6th January, following European markets higher. The euro has been weak compared to the US dollar, with a 2% drop in value from last week's ten-month high. This allows EU wheat to become more competitive and a key factor in trying to secure export sales to Algeria in its latest tender. Official EU wheat exports are now seen at 19 million tonnes, although private analysts estimate shipments at least one million tonnes ahead of that figure from an overall surplus of 30 million tonnes.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
At this time of year, attention turns to upcoming activity on farm. First on the list will be early nitrogen applications, but before they happen it's important to consider what could impact them and any subsequent applications to ensure you make the most of your nitrogen fertiliser.
US wheat production prospects for the 2023 harvest remain in question following a period of challenging weather conditions, also taking into account an increase in the planted area. In January, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated US farmers had planted 36.95 million acres - an 11% increase on the year. Although others estimate less, if this growth is accurate there is a question around how much of that area will provide a crop.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Wheat futures saw further aggressive selling on Monday which extended the negative price run that began in early 2023. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped to their lowest level since October 2021 with sellers encouraged by weekend rains and snow that fell across much of the US winter wheat producing states.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Russia's military activity in Ukraine have had a significant influence on wheat prices over the past 11 months. Last May, wheat futures soared to record high levels as the Russian invasion of Ukraine halted Black Sea exports from one of the world's primary wheat exporters. The subsequent arrival of a record Russian wheat crop - now put above 104 million tonnes - has resulted in notable wheat exports, increasing their market share in world markets. This has contributed to wheat futures prices falling back to levels not seen before the conflict.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Wheat futures rallied over the festive break with many regaining the losses they had posted earlier in December. The primary driver for this was the extreme cold that hit a significant part of the US winter wheat belt with freezing temperatures as far south as Texas raising concerns for winter kill. US winter wheat was already in poor shape with over 70% of the area drilled in drought conditions heading into the winter.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Wheat markets enjoyed some festive cheer over the Christmas holiday season. Prices moved higher and regained the losses they had made since the end of November. However, this short-term blip reversed in the new year with sharp declines and futures markets headed back down towards multi-month lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is ready by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
UK wheat futures have struggled to recover from last week's 9-month lows. UK wheat futures are currently hindered by low world prices and a slow export pace. Official customs data puts UK wheat shipments to the end of October at 313,700 tonnes and it is likely a further 200,000 tonnes will have been shipped by the end of December. With a wheat surplus of more than two million tonnes, the pace of shipments needs to increase significantly in the new year to avoid a considerable build-up of carryover stocks. Domestic demand to the feed sector is in question, with many feed wheat consumers unable to take delivery of existing purchases due to a slowdown in usage.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
European and US wheat futures prices have continued to fall this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures fell to their lowest since the end of September 2021 and Paris wheat futures to their lowest since March 2022. Futures prices have come under pressure as a result of Russia capturing an increasingly large share of the global export market.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
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US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have fallen to three-month lows and are now trading at levels last seen before the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Traders are focused on the situation in China, where strict Covid-19 lockdowns are expected to result in reduced demand and lower-than-expected import requirements.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.
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Wheat market volatility continued again this week, with London wheat futures falling £12/t below last week's highs. The extended Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia, coupled with the record Russian wheat crop and cheap export values, continues to pressure prices. However, support comes from robust demand for EU wheat.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Problems accessing this blog? Click here to go to our main blog feed where you'll be able to see our latest post at the top.
This week, wheat markets continued to fall and have seen further losses in value – over £30/t since the beginning of the month.
The primary bearish price driver has been the hope that Russia would extend the grain export corridor agreement in the Black Sea. On Thursday, the UN Secretary-General confirmed the deal would be extended for 120 days.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Problems accessing this blog? Click here to go to our main blog feed where you'll be able to see our latest post at the top.
European prices have steadily declined to levels last seen in mid-September as a push of cheap exports from key producers has occurred. Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) and Algeria have tendered for Dec/Jan wheat shipments with Russia leading the supply race by pricing significantly below competing origins. Continuation of Russia's wheat export pace (3.5 million tonnes per month) will hinge on the integrity of the grain corridor deal, which is currently the focus of the market.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.
