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Frontrunner - 11th February 2022

The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to generate price volatility in world wheat markets. The week started with an optimistic view from traders that a diplomatic solution to the tensions could be found following a seemingly successful meeting between French president Emmanuel Macron and Russian president Vladimir Putin. This triggered a bout of selling on futures markets on Tuesday.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell. 

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Frontrunner - 4th February 2022

Following last week's notable volatility, wheat markets started this week making sharp loses and struggled to find any form of recovery. The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains and, should this be realised, wheat futures prices would rally again. Speculative longs have, however, been encouraged by progress with diplomatic solutions, with many having subsequently taken the exit, bringing futures prices down in the process.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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Frontrunner - 28th January 2022

The world's wheat markets have seen significant price volatility this week. Fuelled by news reports of increased tension between Russia and the Ukraine, short covering and speculative buying extended gains on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures by 6% by the close of Tuesday and took the market to its highest level since the end of November last year.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 21st January 2022

World wheat markets rallied sharply this week, reacting to mainstream media reports of increasing tension between Russia and the Ukraine. This was highlighted by Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures which gained over 7% and, in doing so, recaptured all the losses they had made so far in 2022.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.

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Frontrunner - 14th January 2022

World wheat prices have fallen again this week, which was highlighted by London wheat futures. Thisextended losses to the lowest level since the middle of last October. Paris wheat futures have led the way down with increasing concerns that the EU export pace is falling behind where it needs to be to meet export estimates.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

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Frontrunner - 7th January 2022

Wheat markets made an uncertain start to 2022 but after some early small gains, trade futures prices posted some notable losses. This week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices fell to their lowest since mid-October and were followed by the Paris and London futures markets. Strong price support had been expected to continue to come from the world's major wheat importers – including Egypt, China and Algeria - as it had done throughout December. However, such support was found lacking this week.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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Frontrunner - 17th December 2021

Wheat futures markets fell heavily mid-week, losing almost 4% of their value. A number of changing elements led to this long liquidation resulting in the loss of all the gains made last month and the new record high prices. The fast-spreading Omicron variant of Covid-19 presents a host of uncertainties but will almost certainly result in lower demand as the hospitality trade once again has to manage lost business. However, there are changing fundamentals that point towards a more relaxed world wheat balance sheet with an increased supply from some of the world's major wheat exporters.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 10th December 2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday, presenting a bearish set of wheat data. World production is seen 2.61 million tonnes higher than last month at 777.89 million tonnes. Overall, wheat supplies are seen up 4.3 million tonnes with increased carry in from last season. Production volumes reflect recent official revised estimates which have seen many increases since figures were previously released.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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Frontrunner - 3rd December 2021

Wheat markets have endured a volatile week of trading, as traders and speculators reacted to the uncertainty of the latest Covid-19 variant Omicron and what it might bring. Having peaked at nine-year highs last week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost over 10% of their value by close of business on Tuesday. This was due to a wave of panic selling, which caused prices to tumble. European wheat futures made similar losses from their record highs last week.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee. 

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Frontrunner - 26th November 2021

European wheat futures rallied further this week, striking new record-high levels as bullish drivers continue to influence markets. Adverse wet weather across east and southeast Australia has proved damaging for wheat crops with reports of sprouted grains and quality wheat consigned to the feed bin. The world's major milling wheat importers were hoping that the arrival of a predicted bumper crop in Australia would ease the tight supply of quality wheat and cap record prices but that may no longer be the case.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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Frontrunner - 19th November 2021

European wheat futures struck new record highs in volatile trading this week. Markets continued to rise, reacting to further notable purchases from some of the world's major wheat importers while being mindful of the likelihood of further export restrictions for Russia, the world's primary wheat exporter. Algeria weighed in with a chunky purchase, thought to be up to 800,000 tonnes, having to pay up to $384/t including freight for shipment mid-December to the end of January.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

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Frontrunner - 12th November 2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its November World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimate (WASDE) report early this week, bringing an end to a short spell of declining prices. A revised estimate for world wheat stocks was released, which was below average trade estimates. The USDA cut world wheat stocks from 277.18 million tonnes to 275.80 million tonnes. This revision changed the negative market sentiment. The profit-taking that was seen from the middle of last week reverted to bullish enthusiasm.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee. 

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Frontrunner - 5th November 2021

Wheat markets have continued to go from strength to strength. Future markets have moved sharply higher, with price gains of over 25% since early September. This rise has been driven by wheat production losses for major exporters Canada, US and Russia and by a loss of French quality amidst strengthening demand.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.

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Frontrunner - 29th October 2021

Wheat futures prices soared again this week, striking new contract highs. This is another record on the back of multi-year highs, driven currently by strong export demand and concerns for tightening world supplies. The Paris wheat market reached its highest level since March 2008 following the release of the EU weekly export data which shows exports have now reached 8.99 million tonnes. Official data for France dating back to July remains incomplete showing just 753,000 tonnes shipped. However, unofficial vessel counts suggest that almost 2.6 million tonnes have been loaded, which would take the total EU shipments to an unsustainable 11 million tonnes.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 22nd October 2021

China is the largest wheat producing country and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the country's total production this season will reach 136.9 million tonnes. However, Chinese government officials said this week that persistent heavy rain impacting the main wheat producing areas across the country has left planting at only 26% complete so far.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell. 

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Frontrunner - 15th October 2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated markets with the release of its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week, presenting bullish data that further underpins the strong prevailing prices. Traders expected to see cuts for Canadian wheat output in line with updates from local analysts. Prolonged spells of heat and dryness have been significantly damaging to the Canadian crop and the USDA now sees the crop total down to 21 million tonnes. This is down two million tonnes on last month and 14 million tonnes down on last year. The US wheat production estimate was lowered by 1.4 million tonnes in line with yield adjustments published on 30th September.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Faye Lee.

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Frontrunner - 8th October 2021

Wheat markets continued to rise this week, supported by strong export trade and uncertainty over Russian wheat export capability. Paris wheat futures have set new contract highs, gaining over 10% in value since the 20th September. So far this season, from 1st July to 4th October, Brussel's trade data showed the EU had shipped just over eight million tonnes of wheat.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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Frontrunner - 1st October 2021

Paris and London wheat futures rallied to new contract highs this week, the jump in prices triggered by bullish wheat stocks and production data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). US wheat stocks estimates for the 1st September 2021 have been set at 1.78 billion bushels - 70 million bushels below average trade estimates and the lowest since 2007. The USDA also cut its 2021 US wheat production estimate by 50 million bushels from its previous estimate, down to a new total of 1.646 billion bushels. This is the equivalent of 44.79 million tonnes and, if realised, will be the smallest US wheat crop for 19 years.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

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Frontrunner - 24th September 2021

London wheat futures prices gained 3.5% from their low on Monday and came within £4/t of the contract high which was achieved in the middle of August. Following higher world market prices, there seemed no clear catalyst for the sharp price rise, but the latest export data from the EU and US was supportive.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report is read this week by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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Frontrunner - 17th September 2021

Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report; much in line with traders' expectations it produced neutral to bearish data. World wheat production is seen rising 3.7 million tonnes up to 780 million tonnes, with Australia up 1.5 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes and India up 1.52 million tonnes to 109.52 million tonnes.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

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