UK wheat prices have edged higher in recent days, tracking world markets that lifted in the face of weather concerns for 2025 wheat production. Helped by sterling weakness, London 2025 crop wheat futures rose to their highest since the end of last month although old crop prices struggled to match that level of interest.

Lack of consumer demand leaves 2024 crop futures with little buying interest, even though prices are not much more than £4 above the contract low. UK feed wheat prices remain too high to compete for exports and buying interest is thin for the shipping trade too.

On Tuesday, Defra announced they would not be accepting any further applications for the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) 2024 scheme in England. This news has taken everyone in agriculture by surprise and we understand the concern and frustration being felt across the industry. In this blog, knowledge exchange manager Michelle Nuttall and sustainable farming advisors Jim Egan and Fiona Tweedie outline what the changes mean for different circumstances, the updates to look out for and some resources for support.

Earlier this week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), presenting a heavier wheat year end stock and an overall bearish outlook.

The early part of this week saw global grain markets fall sharply, led lower by weak Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and corn. US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs for imported goods from Canada and Mexico - which will take effect from Tuesday 4th March - as well as a 10% increase on tariffs for imported goods from China. The negative impact for US agriculture could prove significant, with Mexico being the largest buyer of US corn exports this season, as well as buying US wheat. China said it would retaliate with a 15% tariff on imported US corn and wheat, as well as various other goods. The move will no doubt see Chinese importers switch to produce from other origins, such as wheat from Australia and corn from South America, potentially leaving the US with heavier than expected carry out stocks and lower farm gate prices. Wheat demand to China is already in doubt, with talk of purchases from Australia being rolled forward or even cancelled.

US wheat futures have dropped lower as temperatures in the winter wheat belt rise from last week's severe freeze, reducing the risk of winter kill. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat gained over 10% in value during the first half of February, rising to its highest since last October. This was partly on fears US winter wheat yield potential had been compromised from the extreme cold.

US wheat futures rallied to multi-month highs earlier this week. Prices were driven higher by weather fears, due to a spell of cold weather forecast to hit much of the US winter wheat belt, including overnight lows of -10 °C as far south as Texas and below -20 °C in Kansas. Snow cover has been inconsistent, so given the severity of the cold some winter kill seems most likely. As a result, managed money traders took in some of their short positions, reducing their risk should yield potential have been compromised.

Earlier this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February updates to the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, but wheat traders looking for a bullish boost were left disappointed.

Ahead of the report, Paris wheat futures rallied to their highest since 18^th October, but those gains were all lost once the report data was digested.

Comments made by President Trump that Canada and Mexico would be hit with 25% tariffs on exports into the US, and China with tariffs of 10%, signalled a challenging week for commodities. Early trade for wheat futures was unsurprisingly lower, with traders concerned the tariffs would slow trade and therefore the sales pace for US commodities.

A lack of positive price drivers, slow domestic consumer demand and a renewed spell of sterling strength took London wheat futures lower this week, trading to within £1.50 of the contract low set on 2^nd December.

Despite a host of global weather-related crop issues that may impact 2025 production potential, there isn't yet anything severe enough to trigger speculative short covering. Funds in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat sit just below 100,000 contracts short. They are concerned the US could end the season with a heavy carry out wheat stock despite decent weekly US wheat export inspections taking the cumulative shipped tonnage to 13.764 million tonnes 25% ahead of last year.

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The newly elected US President Trump seemed to positively impact wheat prices, despite fears that tariffs on imported goods would harm US export potential.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures gathered pace on Tuesday, gaining almost 4% by the close and posting its biggest single daily gain since 20^th May last year. The price rally was perhaps less Trump driven, though lack of immediate tariffs for China was a positive sign for US agricultural markets. Speculative fund short covering was driven by fears of exposed US winter wheat crops suffering from winter kill, with extreme cold extending across the Plains as far as Kansas. 

Late afternoon last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a wealth of data for world and US grains, leaving the potential for price volatility to follow.

The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was accompanied by US 1^st December stocks and the USDA's first look at the US winter wheat planted area.

Wheat futures rallied through the Christmas holiday, driven higher by speculative short covering. The weakening Euro in foreign exchange markets, coupled with concerns for future Russian export volumes and their new crop production potential, drove the Paris market to its highest since 18th October last year. Subsequently, a lack of fresh export business and poor EU wheat export sales have galvanised selling interest and prices have eased.

Early this month, London and Paris wheat futures fell to fresh contract lows, extending a run of falling prices that began two months before.

Poor EU wheat demand - highlighted by poor weekly wheat export sales - had encouraged managed money funds to build near record short positions in the Paris wheat futures which weighed on the market's weakness.

However, since then there's been a changing dynamic for the world's leading wheat exporters, Russia and Ukraine, as well as 2025 production concerns. This has triggered a wave of short covering, helping Paris wheat futures gain €14/t at their best this week.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report earlier this week, but with minimal changes for the world's wheat balance sheet.

Compared to last month, the USDA found an additional one-million-tonne carry in from last season and see small production cuts for Canada which is down 40,000 tonnes in line with Statistics Canada (StatsCan). The EU is also down 1.3 million tonnes and Brazil is down 400,000 tonnes. 

London wheat closed at £189.30/t last Wednesday before sliding £5.75/t to a low of £183.55/t on Monday. This is the lowest the May contract has traded since early May '24.

Paris wheat followed a similar pattern closing at €226.50/t on 27^th November, trading to a low of €224.5/t on Monday before closing at €228.75/t on Tuesday.

Chicago's May '25 wheat futures contract was the most bearish, trading to its lowest point since the contract started in back in July 2022 and reaching a low of $5.506/bushel on Wednesday.

This content was previously published in our AGRONOMY newsletter, you can read the full issue on our website at www.frontierag.co.uk/agronomy 

As many of you have entered the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) scheme for 2023 and others are now entering SFI 2024, I feel it's important to emphasise that you should consider the whole rotation when deciding on the actions you want to implement on farm. 

Last Wednesday saw London May wheat futures close at £192.95/t. Prices firmed slightly to £194.40/t before easing back to £193.34/t on Friday's close. Markets opened £3.05/t down on Monday at £190.40/t and haven't moved much since. 

MATIF followed a similar pattern with its May '25 contract closing at €235.00/t on Friday, before trading €6.25/t down at one point on Monday to €228.75/t.

Escalating tensions between Russia and the West have left speculative traders nervous given their near record short position in French wheat futures. The uncertainty over potential interruption to Black Sea grain flows triggered a wave of short covering to reduce risk which helped rally wheat prices by almost £8/t from last week's multi-month lows.

Adding to the upside price potential is the likely cuts to the Russian grain export quota for the February to June 2025 period. Some see the number falling to just ten million tonnes, although the official announcement won't be made until January. Stricter Russian wheat export controls might be expected given the fast pace of shipping this season to date, coupled with the lowest winter wheat planted area this autumn since 2018-19 and what's in the ground being less than perfect.

The US political landscape and beneficial weather have combined to push wheat markets lower in recent days. UK prices suffered from sterling strength, leaving London wheat futures nearing their contract lows.

President Trump says he will be able to bring a prompt end to the Russian/Ukraine war, which, if achievable, would remove the risk to Black Sea wheat supplies which continue to provide the world's major importers with the cheapest available wheat.