Early this month, London and Paris wheat futures fell to fresh contract lows, extending a run of falling prices that began two months before.

Poor EU wheat demand - highlighted by poor weekly wheat export sales - had encouraged managed money funds to build near record short positions in the Paris wheat futures which weighed on the market's weakness.

However, since then there's been a changing dynamic for the world's leading wheat exporters, Russia and Ukraine, as well as 2025 production concerns. This has triggered a wave of short covering, helping Paris wheat futures gain €14/t at their best this week.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report last Friday but presented no bullish surprises which contributed to a softer spell for world wheat prices.

Minor cuts in production for Brazil, the EU, India and Russia, partly offset by increases for Ukraine, sees world production down 2.8 million tonnes on the previous estimate to a total of 794.08 million tonnes. However, this is still almost four million tonnes up on last year.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

The end of last week saw the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) publish its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Any expectations for a bullish report to boost prices were dashed.

World production was cut 1.5 million tonnes to 796.88 million tonnes and there was also a 900,000-tonne rise in consumption which presented a potential marked cut in year-end stocks. However, increases for carry-in Canadian stock to this season to align with StatsCan leaves year-end stocks up 600,000 tonnes on last month to a total of 257.22 million tonnes. Despite this being eight million tonnes down on last year, the market subsequently found ready sellers.

There was little to help the markets from the world corn balance sheet. Several analysts expected a cut for the US corn yield estimate, but it was increased by one million tonnes. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

Poor EU wheat export demand, particularly for French wheat, sent Paris wheat futures to their lowest levels since the middle of March.

EU wheat shipments were up just 337,000 tonnes on the week to 3.553 million tonnes which compares to 4.527 million tonnes in the same period last year. Romania is the top EU shipper so far with close to 1.5 million tonnes, almost three times the French pace. Egypt has received the most wheat with imports of 505,000 tonnes, followed by Nigeria and Morocco. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

US 2024 wheat production looks set to be the largest for five years as winter wheat harvest progresses at a fast pace and the spring wheat condition continues to improve.

Last month, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its total 2024-25 US wheat crop estimate up to 51 million tonnes which, if realised, will be the biggest crop since 2019 when US farmers harvested over 52 million tonnes.

The USDA weekly US crop progress report put the winter wheat harvest at 63% complete, which is up from 54% the previous week and well ahead of this time last year when only 43% had been combined. The spring wheat condition improved three points - now up to 75% rated 'good/excellent' which is well ahead of last year's 47%.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

June saw a significant decline in wheat prices. Futures prices had peaked at the end of May due to concerns over Russian wheat production for 2024. As these fears eased and prospects for other major wheat producers improved, managed money traders sold heavily.

Consequently, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost 25% of their value. On the last day of June, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported increased wheat and corn stocks compared to the previous year - corn planting is ahead of last year, adding to the bearish sentiment.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

French 2024 wheat futures have hit their highest levels since November 2022, driven by further downgrades in Russia's 2024 wheat harvest potential.

While UK and US markets observed a public holiday on Monday, the Paris market surged by nearly 3%. The Russian Grain Union reported frost damage which affected potentially two million hectares. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, further reduced its Russian wheat production estimate to 81.5 million tonnes, down from 83.5 million tonnes. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first grain balance sheet estimates for next season.

World wheat production is seen higher by 10.5 million tonnes on the year to a total of 798.19 million tonnes, but corn will be lower by eight million tonnes to a total of 1.22 billion tonnes. Increases in consumption for both wheat and corn see stocks falling by 4.2 million tonnes and 800,000 tonnes respectively by the end of next season.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope. 

Last week, speculative fund short covering took UK wheat futures to their highest levels in 2024 so far. Prolonged dryness and temperatures in the high 20s across much of southern Russia and east Ukraine were the primary price drivers.

However, cooler temperatures and rain over the weekend means buyers have taken a step back and sellers are keen to take advantage of these attractive prices – this has taken markets lower again.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

Last week's United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report brought minimal shifts in the global wheat landscape. While world wheat production saw a slight increase to 787.36 million tonnes and consumption rose marginally to 800.1 million tonnes, end stocks dipped to 258.27 million tonnes. Notably, the adjustments made for India hint at a potentially bullish scenario for world wheat markets.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

Earlier this week, both US and French wheat futures fell sharply again and struck new contract lows.

Wheat futures have nearly lost half their value from their peak in May 2022 and are under pressure from abundant world wheat supplies and cheaper export sales from Black Sea origins. Offers are reported to have fallen below $200/t FOB – the sterling equivalent of £157/t for milling quality on a vessel at a Black Sea port. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

By midweek, European wheat markets established new contract lows and extended their 2024 price decline.

Slow demand, uninterrupted wheat exports from the Black Sea and no tangible weather issues has seen London wheat futures shed £25/t in value since the end of 2023. There seems little in sight at this stage to arrest the current trend. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

This week world wheat markets have continued the new year in decent shape, as Russia continues to dominate wheat export share by under cutting other origins.

Paris wheat futures fell to new contract lows under the weight of old crop wheat supplies, despite concerns for 2024 production potential. In its latest tender to buy wheat, the General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 420,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for delivery through February and March at the Russian floor price $265 FOB. There was just one French offer which, including freight, was about $17/t too expensive to compete with the Russian sales, highlighting the competitive challenges in world trade.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson. 

The new year hasn't been positive for wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened on the first trading day with heavy losses, as speculative funds started to rebuild short positions. European markets followed US markets lower, with Paris wheat futures setting new contract lows.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

This week world markets dropped lower, ending last week's strong run of prices in US wheat futures.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has lost almost half the gains it made after China purchased 1.1 million tonnes of US wheat, meanwhile Black Sea origins reinforced dominance in world trade. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

Earlier this week, Paris wheat futures dropped to their lowest level in over two years following disappointing export news.

Up to Sunday 26^th November, the latest trade data from Brussels put EU wheat exports up to 11.995 million tonnes - 18% behind last year when 14.677 million tonnes had been shipped in the same period. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.

Five new varieties of winter wheat have been added to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) Recommended List for 2024. These new arrivals offer valuable alternatives for planting next autumn and bring some much-needed diversity to the feed wheat sector, breathing fresh life into the tired looking Group 1 bread-making and Group 3 biscuit markets.

European wheat futures prices were notably lower this week with little fresh trade news to enthuse buying. Amid strong Black Sea competition, the disappointing EU wheat export pace is behind last season and is leading to concerns that a burdensome carry out will come into fruition. Whilst analysts say there haven't yet been any Chinese vessels to collect recently bought French wheat for the week ending 22^nd October, the EU still managed to ship 520,000 of wheat. Cumulative shipments have reached 9.334 million tonnes which compares to the 11.984 million tonnes shipped this time last year - although data is not complete.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.

With the Russian wheat harvest progressing further than expected, yields are leading more analysts to revise their crop estimates for Russia - the world's leading wheat exporter.

Total production is now seen ranging between 91 and 92 million tonnes, therefore creating potential for a higher record export target of 49.5 million tonnes. The first two months got off to a racing start, with estimates of 9.5 million tonnes shipped during July and August. However, the government has since imposed an official floor price for new wheat tenders and this may result in a slowing of the current pace. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman. 

Many UK farmers crossed the finish line this week, bringing a welcome end to one of the most challenging harvests for over a decade. Continued periods of rain delayed combining – a complete contrast to last year's harvest where prolonged dryness allowed for the earliest and quickest harvest since 1976.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.