Earlier this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February updates to the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, but wheat traders looking for a bullish boost were left disappointed.
Ahead of the report, Paris wheat futures rallied to their highest since 18th October, but those gains were all lost once the report data was digested.
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Towards the end of last month, speculative traders extended their short positions in Paris wheat futures. They expected weaker prices due to the poor EU wheat export pace and Russia and Ukraine dominating world wheat trade.
Latterly, adverse EU weather raised concerns for winter planting which triggered some short covering and a lift in futures prices. However, news broke on Tuesday that Iran had launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel accelerated the short covering, leading to a sharp jump in all wheat futures markets.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
This season's leisurely pace of EU wheat exports is contributing to market negativity. To the week ending 25th August, exports are ahead by 238,000 tonnes to a total of 3.927 million tonnes which compares with 5.038 million tonnes last season.
There is a lower surplus of around 27 million tonnes which is four million tonnes below last year. According to analysts Stratégie Grains, this figure will leave a carryover stock almost four million tonnes lower than the carry in. Therefore, it would be premature to be overly concerned for the slower export pace at this stage.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.
June saw a significant decline in wheat prices. Futures prices had peaked at the end of May due to concerns over Russian wheat production for 2024. As these fears eased and prospects for other major wheat producers improved, managed money traders sold heavily.
Consequently, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost 25% of their value. On the last day of June, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported increased wheat and corn stocks compared to the previous year - corn planting is ahead of last year, adding to the bearish sentiment.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
This week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended Tuesday 14 cents down, posting its fifth consecutive lower close.
Upbeat US crop condition weighed on the US market, despite a wealth of international trade activity. European markets maintained their value as France proved successful in capturing market share in international trade.
US winter wheat condition improved by one point, increasing to 49% of the area rated 'good/excellent' which is still notably ahead of last year's 36%. 83% is headed which is up on the average 78%. The US wheat harvest is underway with 6% complete, double the pace this time last year and the average.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.
Last week, speculative fund short covering took UK wheat futures to their highest levels in 2024 so far. Prolonged dryness and temperatures in the high 20s across much of southern Russia and east Ukraine were the primary price drivers.
However, cooler temperatures and rain over the weekend means buyers have taken a step back and sellers are keen to take advantage of these attractive prices – this has taken markets lower again.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Last week's United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report brought minimal shifts in the global wheat landscape. While world wheat production saw a slight increase to 787.36 million tonnes and consumption rose marginally to 800.1 million tonnes, end stocks dipped to 258.27 million tonnes. Notably, the adjustments made for India hint at a potentially bullish scenario for world wheat markets.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Speculative fund short covering has driven wheat futures higher in recent days, led primarily by gains in the Paris market. The May 2024 contract breached €200/t on Tuesday which was the market's highest level since 27th February 2024.
The funds had built record short positions in the Paris wheat market but improved physical wheat demand, Black Sea supply concerns and EU political moves have been the catalysts to trigger a need to reduce the exposure to potentially higher prices.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Throughout 2023, the weather played its part for many maize growers. Adverse conditions made the task of growing a successful crop interesting to say the least.
Maize sowing was delayed in many areas due to a very wet March and April. It was then followed by drought conditions into June where the heat set maize on its way to record harvest yields. July arrived and so did the rain - just in time for cereal harvest! It almost feels like it hasn't stopped raining since.
Five new varieties of winter wheat have been added to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) Recommended List for 2024. These new arrivals offer valuable alternatives for planting next autumn and bring some much-needed diversity to the feed wheat sector, breathing fresh life into the tired looking Group 1 bread-making and Group 3 biscuit markets.
Russia's military activity in Ukraine have had a significant influence on wheat prices over the past 11 months. Last May, wheat futures soared to record high levels as the Russian invasion of Ukraine halted Black Sea exports from one of the world's primary wheat exporters. The subsequent arrival of a record Russian wheat crop - now put above 104 million tonnes - has resulted in notable wheat exports, increasing their market share in world markets. This has contributed to wheat futures prices falling back to levels not seen before the conflict.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
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Wheat futures prices surged to a three-month high on Monday. Speculators and trade shorts raced for cover due to the Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in many cities across Ukraine, fearful of an escalation of the conflict and an interruption to exports from the Black Sea. However, markets subsequently eased lower as shipments continued. Comments in the media that Russia may cancel an export quota also triggered selling, although with a record 150 million tonne grain crop - 100 million tonnes of which is wheat – this hardly suggests any restriction for exports is necessary.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell.
Problems accessing this blog? Click here to go to our main blog feed where you'll be able to see our latest post at the top.
While the industry appears to have well and truly embarked on the transition into a 'new era' now, a level of uncertainty remains around the new funding opportunities and ongoing changes to agri-environment schemes.
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The economics of growing oilseed rape have fundamentally changed over the last few years. Throughout this period, we have seen its value move from approximately £320/t in harvest 2020, to £440/t in 2021, to the heights of 2022 of £900/t. Currently, this has come back to £550/t for harvest. The crop has never been so valuable.
The current volatility of global markets and commodity prices is well documented; in recent weeks, there have been price swings that have never been experienced before. While it makes for some interesting market behaviours, knowing when to react in terms of buying and selling can be a challenge, particularly when prices are changing in a matter of minutes.
Cooler, wetter weather in the UK has brought some welcome relief to crops which, as a result, has brought out a few sellers. However, the UK will still need to import substantial quantities of rapeseed into the UK next season.
For 2019, rapeseed markets were mainly supply driven but, since the Covid-19 crisis, we've seen the collapse in demand for mineral oils and rapeseed oil as a result of the lockdowns imposed on industries that would ordinarily need these products. Typically, in the EU, 60% of the demand for rapeseed oil goes into biofuels, with the rest into the food service industry.
Weather in the Northern Hemisphere continues to underpin grain prices, particularly ongoing dryness in some of Europe's key wheat-producing regions. Much of Northern Europe, the Baltics and Southern Russia have seen very little rainfall with the latter receiving just 5-20mm this week, so crops are continually being stressed. Consultancy, SovEcon, said on Friday that despite some recent rain, the extended drought period left irreversible damage to some crops which will result in lower output.
World consumption of oils is forecast to decrease by up to 500,000 tonnes compared to that seen in 2019, due to less biodiesel and food demand.
In the UK, vegetable oil demand remains weak due to the reduced requirements from restaurants and the wider food industry. With lockdown and social distancing guidelines still in place, it is not known when this demand may pick up or return back to 'normal' levels, although it is thought to run through until the second half of 2020 at least.
Following losses of 4% during the last third of January, around £2 per tonne has been added to world wheat prices since the market closed on Friday.
There is little fresh news to influence prices but wheat exports from the EU and Ukraine continue to move at a strong pace. EU exports climbed to 16.4 million tonnes by the 2nd February, compared to just 9.9 million tonnes at the same time last year. Despite strike action hindering logistics, French ports shipped their biggest volume of wheat for six years during January.
