US wheat futures rallied to multi-month highs earlier this week. Prices were driven higher by weather fears, due to a spell of cold weather forecast to hit much of the US winter wheat belt, including overnight lows of -10 °C as far south as Texas and below -20 °C in Kansas. Snow cover has been inconsistent, so given the severity of the cold some winter kill seems most likely. As a result, managed money traders took in some of their short positions, reducing their risk should yield potential have been compromised.

Earlier this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February updates to the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, but wheat traders looking for a bullish boost were left disappointed.

Ahead of the report, Paris wheat futures rallied to their highest since 18^th October, but those gains were all lost once the report data was digested.

Comments made by President Trump that Canada and Mexico would be hit with 25% tariffs on exports into the US, and China with tariffs of 10%, signalled a challenging week for commodities. Early trade for wheat futures was unsurprisingly lower, with traders concerned the tariffs would slow trade and therefore the sales pace for US commodities.

A lack of positive price drivers, slow domestic consumer demand and a renewed spell of sterling strength took London wheat futures lower this week, trading to within £1.50 of the contract low set on 2^nd December.

Despite a host of global weather-related crop issues that may impact 2025 production potential, there isn't yet anything severe enough to trigger speculative short covering. Funds in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat sit just below 100,000 contracts short. They are concerned the US could end the season with a heavy carry out wheat stock despite decent weekly US wheat export inspections taking the cumulative shipped tonnage to 13.764 million tonnes 25% ahead of last year.

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The newly elected US President Trump seemed to positively impact wheat prices, despite fears that tariffs on imported goods would harm US export potential.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures gathered pace on Tuesday, gaining almost 4% by the close and posting its biggest single daily gain since 20^th May last year. The price rally was perhaps less Trump driven, though lack of immediate tariffs for China was a positive sign for US agricultural markets. Speculative fund short covering was driven by fears of exposed US winter wheat crops suffering from winter kill, with extreme cold extending across the Plains as far as Kansas. 

Late afternoon last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published a wealth of data for world and US grains, leaving the potential for price volatility to follow.

The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was accompanied by US 1^st December stocks and the USDA's first look at the US winter wheat planted area.

Wheat futures rallied through the Christmas holiday, driven higher by speculative short covering. The weakening Euro in foreign exchange markets, coupled with concerns for future Russian export volumes and their new crop production potential, drove the Paris market to its highest since 18th October last year. Subsequently, a lack of fresh export business and poor EU wheat export sales have galvanised selling interest and prices have eased.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report earlier this week, but with minimal changes for the world's wheat balance sheet.

Compared to last month, the USDA found an additional one-million-tonne carry in from last season and see small production cuts for Canada which is down 40,000 tonnes in line with Statistics Canada (StatsCan). The EU is also down 1.3 million tonnes and Brazil is down 400,000 tonnes. 

Last Wednesday saw London May wheat futures close at £192.95/t. Prices firmed slightly to £194.40/t before easing back to £193.34/t on Friday's close. Markets opened £3.05/t down on Monday at £190.40/t and haven't moved much since. 

MATIF followed a similar pattern with its May '25 contract closing at €235.00/t on Friday, before trading €6.25/t down at one point on Monday to €228.75/t.

The beginning of the week saw wheat futures markets extend their losses, with London wheat futures losing almost 8% of their value since the peak on 3rd October. Improving wheat crop prospects for Argentina this season, as well as for the EU and UK in 2025, encouraged the selling.

The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its Argentina wheat production estimate to 19.5 million tonnes following recent rains. It also raised the wheat export estimate to 13.3 million tonnes, which if achieved would be the second highest ever. Crop ratings for Argentinian wheat increased from 31% to 38%, 'good/excellent'.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

Geopolitical issues triggered spells of speculative short covering in futures markets this week. Trader concerns over the wider repercussions of a potential retaliation by Israel against Iran increased crude oil prices by over 3% on Monday to over $80/t, its highest since 19^th July. This had a positive impact on other commodity markets, including wheat.

Away from the tensions in the Middle East, Russian missile strikes on two Ukrainian Black Sea ports, including Odessa, resulted in damage to grain carrying vessels - another reminder of the potential risk around shipping from the world's cheapest wheat source. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.

Further speculative fund short covering helped wheat prices move higher earlier this week. London wheat futures recovered £3 from last week's low, although further gains to match other wheat futures markets were capped by another spell of sterling strength. The pound reached its highest level against the euro and the US dollar since April 2022, with investors attracted by the Bank of England leaving the UK base rate unchanged as the Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by 0.5%.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope. 

Wheat futures prices have stabilised over the past week, sitting approximately 7% above their August lows. There is an increasing number of supporting elements to hold prices up, but nothing sufficient enough to move them on to another level yet.

Strong Russian and Ukraine exports dominate world trade and spot Russian wheat offers remain anchored at about $218/t FOB, failing to follow outside markets higher. The lack of rain and low soil moisture for drilling crop '25 is an additional watch for an extensive area covering Eastern Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. Russian winter drilling is reported to be at its slowest pace since 2013 because of the dryness. According to the Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, just 2% of Ukraine winter wheat area is planted due to record high temperatures and dryness.  

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope. 

Wheat markets have enjoyed a buoyant start to September. Just three days into the new month Paris futures topped a 9% price gain from their contract lows seen trading during the last week of August. With the US and EU harvests nearing completion and harvest farm selling pressure drying up, trade liquidity has become an issue at the lower price levels. Speculative short covering has provided buying interest, although the primary negative wheat price driver remains in play.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

On Monday this week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE). Traders expected to see a slight increase in US wheat production, but despite seeing a higher yield, the USDA also saw a smaller harvested area. This left US wheat production dropping from the previous estimate of 54.66 million tonnes to 53.93 million tonnes.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

Improving production prospects for US wheat and corn has encouraged speculative funds to build near record short positions in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures, sending markets to contract lows at the end of July. The subsequent weakness in the US dollar – which has enabled US grains to be more competitive in export markets - has allowed for a modest wheat price recovery, but strong crop ratings temper any notable buying enthusiasm.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell. 

Up until Wednesday, the past week has seen the bears take control of the market.

London wheat futures for the November contract opened at £195.75/t last Thursday before shedding £8.50/t to a low of £187.25/t on Tuesday – they recovered by close of play Wednesday.

Paris wheat futures for the December contract followed a similar pattern. They opened at €231.25/t last Thursday, then dropped by €9.75/t to a low of €221.50/t and recovered on Wednesday by closing at €227.50/t. 

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The week's report is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.

Reports of poor quality and plunging crop ratings triggered a sharp price rally for wheat futures markets earlier this week, as the French wheat harvest progressed northwards. Paris wheat futures found strength, adding 12 euros from its recent low last week.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

Wheat futures markets have continued to fall as crop concerns ease and demand remains uncertain. Speculative managed funds trading the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market were sellers again on Tuesday for the seventeenth time in the last 19 trading days. This has left the December CBOT position at its lowest since 15^th March 2024 and just 16 cents away from the lowest point so far this year.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.