Frontrunner - 27th March 2025

WHEAT

• Wheat prices lower again

The world wheat markets continued to fall this week. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped to their lowest since the beginning of the month, with sellers encouraged by improving prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Officials from the US, Ukraine and Russia agreed to a 30-day ceasefire which would protect Russian and Ukraine energy facilities from attacks. There was also an agreement to ensure the safe passage of cargo vessels in the Black Sea. An easing of sanctions on Russian agricultural products should expand its export potential and restore supplies of more affordable fertiliser.

Despite the conflict lasting for over three years, the first half of this season saw Russia shipping around 1 million tonnes each week. The pace was so strong that Russia was obliged to introduce a wheat export quota for the period from February to June 2025 to ensure domestic wheat supplies were sufficient and reduce the risk of food inflation.

• Improving Russian wheat production prospects

A period of more favourable weather saw analysts improve on Russian 2025 wheat production potential. Despite winter wheat being historically poor heading into the winter period, at the end of last year the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) increased its base line wheat production by 1.5 million tonnes on it's previous estimate to 82.5 million tonnes. IKAR is seeing the total crop ranging from 78.5 million tonnes to 86.5 million tonnes, both also up by 1.5 million tonnes from previous estimates.

• Poor EU exports and more wheat next season

Poor EU wheat exports continue to weigh heavily on European wheat prices. Weekly shipments up to 23^rd March were 537,000 tonnes, taking the total for the season to 15.458 million tonnes, 8.3 million tonnes behind last year. Official Brussels data appears to lag physical vessel count data by showing French shipments at 1.6 million tonnes, 400,000t behind actual data. The UK slips to fourth in the list of EU wheat importers behind Nigeria, Morocco, and Algeria with 1.064 million tonnes. However, again putting Brussels data into question, UK customs import data from July to January puts wheat at almost 1.5 million tonnes.

Beneficial weather leads the Monitoring Agricultural Resource (MARS), the EU's crop monitor, to increase its EU 2025 wheat yield estimate to 6t/ha. This is marginally ahead of the number published earlier this month by Strategie Grains at 5.91t/ha, and 7.5% ahead of last year's 5.58t/ha. If the MARS yield comes into fruition, the EU 2025 wheat crop could reach 129.5 million tonnes; 16 million tonnes up on this year.

EU wheat exporters will need to be notably more assertive next season with a surplus likely to be as much as 10 million tonnes greater than is shipped this season. Help may come from Morocco, which has extended import subsidies from 1^st May to 31^st December, suggesting a greater import need. The government has also extended subsidies for importers to hold stock through that period.

BARLEY

Spring barley sowing has progressed at a rapid pace this week, with most areas of England now sown. Drilling is also progressing well in Scandinavia, with Denmark anticipated to be 75% sown by the weekend. It's been another quiet week in the malting barley market, with demand to both domestic and export destinations being muted. This is except for some European maltsters looking to buy malting barley vessels for July or August shipments, due to there being a discount to new crop malting barley. Malt demand remains sluggish due to a few factors including inflation, change in consumption habits, and less than conducive weather conditions for beer sales. Uncertainty regarding potential US tariffs is also not helping confidence in the sector.

Good volumes of feed barley have been sold by UK farmers this week, matching its continued demand especially with export enquiries. The spread between feed wheat and feed barley prices continues to narrow, which should be a sign of barley looking relatively attractive to sell and is likely to reduce the demand for feed barley in feed rations.

Looking ahead to next year, we are offering a range of marketing options to help growers manage risk and market their malting barley crops. Guaranteed minimum premium contracts, futures related distilling contracts and malting barley pools are just a selection of the contracts available. 

OILSEED RAPE

In the last week, European rapeseed markets have rebounded from their recent six-month lows, with May MATIF futures up €46 in seven working days, due to Europe being the biggest importer and most sensitive to the changes in trade values due to recent global trade tariffs. The rebound comes as traders work out the real impact of the recent implementation of tariffs and what effect Chinese tariffs have on Canada where rapeseed meal and oil are affected by the tariffs but seed is not (a very complicated picture). Other considerations are that Europe only has limited capacity for genetically modified seed, which ends up in biofuels, and the demand for seed into human consumption must not be genetically modified.

These tariff effects are applying to new crop markets where crop conditions are also coming into play. Generally the outlook for crop production next year is positive, with a bigger crop year-on-year in the EU-27, Canadian production pegged at around 18 million tonnes, near 5-year average, and Australia fixed at around 5.5 million tonnes. The weather has been favourable for EU crops so far.

 FERTILISER

We are continuing to see pressure on fertiliser deliveries in the UK. These pressures come from a late buying pattern, low stocks at ports, delayed raw material vessels arriving in the UK, and a lack of available logistics to move the product to farm. This has been exacerbated by an early spring, all of which combined has made a pinch point in the UK fertiliser supply chain.

• Urea/Nitrates

Urea continues to ease globally, mainly due to lack of demand.The long-awaited Indian tender has just been announced where it is looking for approximately 1.5 million tonnes of urea for shipment by 12^th June and the tender closes on 8th April. Whether this will affect urea prices and put a halt to slide in prices is yet to be played out.Prior to this recent announcement on global urea, markets were beginning to ease, however, this tender could lead to higher prices. As the market awaits a direction from India, European buyers are remaining distinctly absent. For the UK, it is expected that there will be no further product purchased to arrive this spring. Urea values in the UK remain stable with sellers only having a small tonnage left to sell. Keep in mind that from 1^st April all products containing urea in England must conform with the Urea Stewardship Scheme.

Nitrates are a very different story, with limited availability keeping prices firm in the UK and Europe. Nitrates markets haven't weakened like the urea market has. As we are in the main spring buying period for the UK and supply is very tight, we could still see nitrate prices firm as we head towards the main application period, with Easter adding to the already challenging apring logistics. Frontier still has Nitram terms which are produced in the UK and are available for delivery in April, so please speak to your Frontier contact for prices.

• UAN/liquid

With mostly settled conditions, liquid fertiliser product is continuing to be applied across the UK. Growers are encouraged to plan ahead, allowing between 72 and 96 hours from point of request to delivery on farm to avoid delays in application; whether this be nitrogen, nitrogen sulphur, or NPK grades.

In recent days, a vessel discharged into an East Anglian portside facility, replenishing stocks and allowing growers continued access to a full range of nitrogen and nitrogen sulphur grades at competitive values compared to available solid grades. The deadline of 1^st April for the Urea Stewardship Scheme is looming this week, so all UAN growers are encouraged to include a urease inhibitor, such as Limus® Perform, throughout their liquid fertiliser programme to improve their nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). However, be aware that from next Tuesday, in order to remain compliant with the scheme in England, a urease inhibitor must be included in all UAN applications for the remainder of the season.

• Straights/PKs/NPKs

Potash remains firm, with delays in vessel arrivals to the UK causing further pressure in deliveries. The predicted tariffs on imports to the US is still uncertain and is causing nervousness in the market.The phosphates markets continue to remain firm, with limited supply, high demand, and a lack of Chinese exports. Tightness in the supply on both potash and phosphate continue with delays being seen on product arrival onto farm.

Limited NPK compounds are available and can be delivered in April subject to transport.

Please consider the delivery timescale for any blends or straights and purchase your remaining fertiliser requirements for this spring as soon as possible to ensure product is on farm in time for usage, as we are now seeing next available delivery slots for most products at the very end of April into early May.

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.