'Versatility' has become 'the norm' for many people across the globe following the many and varied extreme events of the past four years. More specifically within UK agriculture, there have been the challenging unseasonable weather patterns during autumn and spring. These have affected growers' annual cropping plans, key agronomic timings and fertiliser applications.
Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world's 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
DEFRA's consultation on reducing ammonia emissions from urea fertilisers closed in January 2021, but it wasn't until April of this year that the outcomes were clarified.
Now that we can consider all the details, I've outlined some Q&As to offer more context to the new regulation and what it aims to cover.
Last week's wheat price gains were quickly lost this week as the weight of old crop stocks, demand concerns and improving 2023 production prospects motivated selling interest. Despite uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor deal and increased hostility from Russia towards Ukraine, eastern EU states are heavy with previously imported Ukrainian supplies.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. This week's report is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
World wheat futures dropped again this week, extending their 2023 losing streak. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) figures dropped to their lowest since December 2020 and London old crop futures struck a new contract low which was almost half the peak price it achieved during May last year.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week, Canada's national statistical office, Statistics Canada (StatsCan), published its first look at 2023 Canadian crop potential and farmer planting intentions. Canadian farmers are set to increase their wheat area by around 6% on last year, to 27 million acres. If realised, this would be the largest drilled area since 2001. This potential boost to global supplies exceeded trade expectations and added to the market price negativity.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Wheat futures markets rose sharply earlier this week, with traders concerned over the flow of grain from the Black Sea. Prices increased by around 6%, with Russia casting doubt on its renewal of the Ukraine Black Sea export deal next month. Subject to the terms of the deal, vessels entering or exiting the Ukrainian Black Sea must be inspected. However, Russia has blocked inspections as vessels passed through Turkish waters for a second day, which has prompted Ukraine to say that the export deal is at danger of collapse. Russia warned that prospects of an extension to the deal will be low once its previous 60-day extension ends in the middle of May unless certain criteria are met in respect to Western sanctions.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
This week, London wheat futures fell to their lowest since the beginning of 2022. Lower-than-expected use in both the animal feed and bioethanol sectors has created a heavy domestic balance sheet. This, combined with scarce export opportunity, has put pressure on prices and led to a notable discount on new crop.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
London wheat futures fell lower again this week, with old crop prices falling close to multi-month lows, the lowest since the 22nd of March. Selling was encouraged by lower world markets and what is likely to be a significant UK carry over stock from this season into next.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Wheat futures markets continued to rally until mid-week, making impressive gains from last week's multi-month lows. The London wheat market added £19/t which encouraged further farmer selling, but with limited interest in physical wheat buying, domestic prices subsequently dropped again towards the end of the week.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by Lucinda Redgate.
Last weekend the Black Sea export corridor deal was renewed. Despite demands from Ukraine for a minimum extension of 120 days, all parties ultimately agreed to Russia's proposal of a maximum of 60 days. Russia said an extension of the deal beyond mid-May will depend on the removal of some western sanctions.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Wheat markets have endured a volatile week's trading with focus on the talks between representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the UN as they discussed the renewal of the Black Sea export deal.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat futures markets continued to fall this week and have now lost 14% of their value since the end of 2022. The primary drivers for the market negativity are twofold. Firstly, the ongoing competition from cheap Russian wheat exports following Russia's record 2022 wheat crop; and secondly, a strong belief the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN will renew at the end of next week. If this is the case, Ukraine will continue to ship cheaply offered wheat, corn and other grains on world markets. This makes it likely the US, the EU and other major exporters will be left with burdensome year end stocks.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
A strong Russian presence in the global wheat export market and a firm assumption that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed later this month have caused US wheat futures to slip to their lowest level for 17 months this week.
European wheat markets have fallen sharply this week, dropping back to price levels seen towards the end of last month. Markets had previously risen due to concerns around the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN not likely to renew next month, which will be when the timeline for the previous agreement comes to an end. Recent comments from Russian officials suggested some dissatisfaction that the deal was not working in its favour. However, in a public address this week, President Putin made no comments to indicate the deal will not be renewed. Despite this, a date for renegotiation has not yet been set. Ukraine will ask Turkey and the UN for a one-year extension to the export deal and to expand it to include the ports of Mykolaiv.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
There were few developments in the wheat market this week, with attention remaining focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Next week will mark one year since the conflict began and this has seen London wheat futures reach their highest level since the 24th March.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week world wheat markets continued their February recovery, shaking off the January blues. London wheat futures reached their highest level since 6th January, following European markets higher. The euro has been weak compared to the US dollar, with a 2% drop in value from last week's ten-month high. This allows EU wheat to become more competitive and a key factor in trying to secure export sales to Algeria in its latest tender. Official EU wheat exports are now seen at 19 million tonnes, although private analysts estimate shipments at least one million tonnes ahead of that figure from an overall surplus of 30 million tonnes.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
At this time of year, attention turns to upcoming activity on farm. First on the list will be early nitrogen applications, but before they happen it's important to consider what could impact them and any subsequent applications to ensure you make the most of your nitrogen fertiliser.
US wheat production prospects for the 2023 harvest remain in question following a period of challenging weather conditions, also taking into account an increase in the planted area. In January, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated US farmers had planted 36.95 million acres - an 11% increase on the year. Although others estimate less, if this growth is accurate there is a question around how much of that area will provide a crop.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Wheat futures saw further aggressive selling on Monday which extended the negative price run that began in early 2023. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped to their lowest level since October 2021 with sellers encouraged by weekend rains and snow that fell across much of the US winter wheat producing states.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
