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This week, wheat markets continued to fall and have seen further losses in value – over £30/t since the beginning of the month.

The primary bearish price driver has been the hope that Russia would extend the grain export corridor agreement in the Black Sea. On Thursday, the UN Secretary-General confirmed the deal would be extended for 120 days.

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European prices have steadily declined to levels last seen in mid-September as a push of cheap exports from key producers has occurred. Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) and Algeria have tendered for Dec/Jan wheat shipments with Russia leading the supply race by pricing significantly below competing origins. Continuation of Russia's wheat export pace (3.5 million tonnes per month) will hinge on the integrity of the grain corridor deal, which is currently the focus of the market.

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Markets slipped lower this week but further problems for Southern Hemisphere wheat production helped generate a mild recovery on Thursday. In southeastern Australia, persistent rain and consequential flooding across thousands of acres of arable land is damaging yield and quality. At this stage it is uncertain what impact this will have on total Australian wheat production. Recent estimates are at 34 million tonnes which would be the country's second ever highest crop after last year's record of 36.3 million tonnes.

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The possibility that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed has influenced markets this week. However, whether this renewal will be realised remains in question. President Putin has reportedly commented that a recent attack on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, was a result of weapons that were smuggled via the corridor and therefore he is unsure whether a renewal of the agreement is in the best interests of Russia.

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Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its final 2022 US wheat production estimate and surprised markets by cutting over 130 million bushels from its September estimate, which was in line with average trade expectations. The USDA sees the crop down to 1,650 million bushels; the equivalent of 44.9 million tonnes. This reduction in the US wheat production estimate coupled with lower-than-expected corn and wheat stocks in the US (as of 1^st September) saw futures prices make sharp gains. The rally continued into the beginning of this week.

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World wheat markets continued to rise this week, driven higher by heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Threats to the longevity of the safe Black Sea export corridor amidst the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the Kremlin has encouraged further short covering and speculative buying of wheat futures. Over 210 vessels carrying agricultural produce have now left Ukrainian Black Sea ports since the UN-brokered deal was signed with Russia, but there is increasing doubt the deal will extend beyond the expiry of the initial agreement in November.

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London wheat futures rallied to their highest point since the 11^thJuly this week as a result of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin said he was mobilising 300,000 additional reserves and announced other activity that has concerned markets. The comments from Putin saw Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rise by over 7% as the shorts covered their positions fearing disruption to essential Ukrainian agricultural produce exports.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September updates to the World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Monday afternoon, which helped wheat futures prices rally to a two-month high mid-week. However, lower corn production estimates currently provide the main price driver for wheat.

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Wheat futures moved sharply higher earlier this week, although prices remained in the trading range that has prevailed for the past two months. Traders reacted to lower corn production estimates for both the US and EU, the result of prolonged dry and hot weather conditions that have proved damaging for yield potential.

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Wheat prices moved higher early in the week in response to strong gains in US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, which rose to a two-month high. Corn futures rose in reaction to disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour as it progressed through the main corn-producing states. Iowa is the world's number one corn producer, yet yields from Western Iowa were reported at 181.12 bu/ac, which has fallen from 183.96 bu/ac last year and is lower than the three-year average of 183.47 bu/ac.

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By the 7^th August, EU wheat exports reached 2.49 million tonnes; this is marginally ahead of last year. However, Brussels state the data is incomplete and private analysts see shipments 30% ahead of last year. French shipments alone are thought to be at least half a million tonnes understated.  . Major world wheat importers have all sourced a significant proportion of their purchases from freely available EU supplies due to the continued challenges and restrictions on Ukrainian and Russian origins.

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One grain ship leaving a Ukrainian Black Sea port was sufficient for world wheat futures markets to come under notable selling pressure this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat fell to a six-month low.

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After weeks of talks and negotiations, Turkish officials said that a deal to allow safe Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports would be signed at a ceremony in Istanbul on Friday 22^nd July 2022. Russia and Ukraine are reported to have reached agreement with the UN and Turkey although at the time of writing there has been no official confirmation from either Russia or Ukraine and the details of the agreement have not been released.

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On Tuesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July updates to its World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report. Revisions were relatively mild but continued long liquidation on futures markets was encouraged by increases to production estimates and stocks for US wheat and corn, as well as cuts to world demand figures for each commodity resulting in a higher stock than the previous month.

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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) adopted a change to its method for wheat import purchases this week, entering into direct talks with exporters in preference to where it usually holds a general purchase tender. Egypt bought around 444,000 tonnes, adding to the 815,000 tonnes it bought last week, split between Russia with 214,000 tonnes, France with 170,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes from Romania. 

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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) made its largest single wheat purchase for over 13 years this week, buying 815,000 tonnes for shipment during August, September and October. Last weekend, the Egyptian Minister for Supply and Internal Trade said his country needed to import ten million tonnes of wheat over the next six months while having secured 3.9 million tonnes from local farmers and having wheat reserves sufficient for almost six months.

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World wheat futures have fallen sharply this week, as highlighted by the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), for which wheat values declined almost 9.5% since last Friday's close. These losses have been driven by fears of demand destruction in light of failing economies, unaffordable high commodity prices and grain that remains trapped in Ukraine.

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Recent market weakness has been driven by expectations that a solution will be found for releasing trapped Ukrainian grain for shipment through Black Sea ports. This week, meetings took place in Turkey with Russian officials to secure safe routes for grain exports. Russia said that Ukraine must demine approaches to ports and that Russian forces would check ships entering Ukrainian ports which could then load grain and proceed to international waters.

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There are new contract highs for 2022 European new crop wheat futures this week, as markets continue to react to the longer-term threats to Black Sea wheat supplies - particularly those from Ukraine. The London November 2022 contract passed £300/t for the first time and the old crop May 2022 contract set a new record with a high of £332.20/t.

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Grain markets have continued to see volatile trading and early in the week US wheat futures rallied following the first 2022 national crop condition and progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter wheat crops are in a particularly poor condition, with ratings as bad as they have ever been at this time of year, with the exception of the 1996 crop. Crops have suffered from prolonged dry conditions, expanding drought and storms in December.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.