Frontrunner - 21st October 2022

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WHEAT

• Black Sea exports remain in question

The possibility that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed has influenced markets this week. However, whether this renewal will be realised remains in question. President Putin has reportedly commented that a recent attack on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, was a result of weapons that were smuggled via the corridor and therefore he is unsure whether a renewal of the agreement is in the best interests of Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia's wheat exports are building pace. Analyst group SovEcon estimates that Russia will ship 4.4 million tonnes of wheat in October. If achieved, this will take the total shipped for the season to 14.3 million tonnes from its 47-million-tonne surplus. Recently, Russia has dominated sales in international markets and has undercut both EU and US offers.

However, there is speculation that an all-grain export cap of 25.5 million tonnes will be implemented in Russia, lasting from mid-February 2023 until June 2023. This is in spite of the fact that Russia has produced a record wheat harvest, estimated to be in the region of 100 million tonnes.

• Less Black Sea grain in 2023

Both Ukraine and Russia will harvest smaller crops in 2023 and see their export market share drop.

Analyst group SovEcon has published its first estimate for 2023 Russian wheat production and has predicted that total production next year will fall to 84.8 million tonnes (compared to the 100.6 million tonnes produced this season).

Adverse weather has delayed normal winter wheat planting progress in Russia. In Ukraine, adverse weather has also delayed winter wheat planting. To the 18^th October, only 2.5 million hectares had been drilled, which is 50% less than what had been drilled at this time last year.

The planting area in Ukraine is expected to drop from the six million hectares that were planted last year to four million hectares this year. This is in part due to the impact of Russian occupation.

• Heavy UK balance sheet

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) published its first UK wheat balance sheet this week and, as expected, has highlighted an abundance of wheat. Total UK production is seen at 15.664 million tonnes.

However, although demand from the ethanol production industry has increased by 450,000 tonnes this year, the exportable surplus is still large at 2.01 million tonnes. A surplus of this volume could present logistical issues and it may be hard to attract buyers. However, at this stage, the volume of the surplus is having no notable impact on prices as consumers purchase ex farm sales.

BARLEY

• Feed barley values trade in narrow range

Feed barley values have traded within a relatively narrow range on the week and domestic markets remain under pressure in the spot positions. Farmers and traders are looking to sell for October and November, although there is little fresh compound demand due to the late season grass growth that affected many parts of England. Combined with the relatively dry and mild conditions, this has allowed stock to be left outside.

Farmer selling into the new year is slow given that barley values are around £20/t lower than two weeks ago. The export market reflects this trend, with some interest in the spot being seen. However, uncertainty remains around whether the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed. Currently, there is a lack of any offers into the new year.

• AHDB 2022/23 balance sheet released

The AHDB released its first 2022/23 balance sheet yesterday with the UK barley crop estimated at just under 7.2 million tonnes. One of the most notable changes in the report is the 5% fall in animal feed demand. This drop is due to the pressure on markets in the livestock sector which has arisen as a result of rising feed costs and the fact that barley has not traded at a wide enough discount to wheat to find additional ration demand until recent weeks. The discount to wheat has now extended to beyond £20/t, especially in spot positions.

A larger crop combined with lower domestic demand leaves the UK with a surplus of feed and malting barley to export and, with the current political uncertainty impacting on the UK's competitiveness due to the lack of currency stability, opportunities to market this surplus will be sporadic especially in the short term. 

​OILSEED RAPE

• South American soybean progress

Low levels of rainfall in Argentina have caused soil moisture levels in the country to diminish, which has raised concern amongst farmers who are currently looking to plant wheat. If wheat plantings are unsuccessful, soybeans could be the second choice as they have a prolonged planting period. Some estimates suggest this could add as much as three to five million tonnes to Argentina's soybean production.

The Brazilian soybean crop would benefit from some more rainfall, which is forecasted to arrive soon. Currently, there are no concerns around the Brazilian soybean crop.

• UK and EU imports progressing well

In this season to date, the UK and Europe are making strong progress on rapeseed imports. The origins of the imports include the Black Sea, the Baltics, and old crop from Australia and Canada. Strong production from all of these countries is set to result in increased rapeseed crush across Europe for this year, although this will not prevent a heavy carryover of stocks into 2023.

Currently, rapeseed oil is at a suitable discount to soybean oil to allow for this increased crushing activity to occur.

• Russia-Ukraine update

Russian military activity has been seen increasing across Ukraine.

This week, a major sunflower oil storage and processing facility that handles around 17% of the global sunflower trade was hit in Mykolaiv. Further disruption of this kind would cause serious concerns over market supply.

With the exception of this incident, rapeseed export progress from Ukraine has been strong to date with well over 50% of Ukraine's exportable surplus now shipped. However, vessel checks in neutral Turkey are taking increasingly longer to be processed and are causing bottlenecks.

Globally, traders are closely watching the grain export corridor which, if disrupted, would have quick and notable effects on cereal and oilseeds markets. Rapeseed would be the least likely to see any sustained benefit due to a strong global supply and the success of exports from Ukraine to date.

 PULSES

• Bean values fall

Old crop feed bean values continue to come under pressure as European buyers look to roll cargoes from October to November. There is reduced mill demand and beans of Baltic origin are trading at lower values than here in the UK. Animal feed demand has lessened in the UK due to warmer weather and more timely rains than originally forecasted. As there is still a large volume of beans on farm to be moved and these factors to consider, a further fall in bean values can be expected.

There is no market interest for new crop beans currently but, given the successful result of the Frontier bean pools for harvest 2022, we encourage you to speak to your Frontier farm trader for more information regarding the 2022/23 pool, which is now open.

 FERTILISER

• Urea/AN

It's been a quiet week for urea and ammonium nitrate (AN), as global markets await news on the latest Indian tender which would give some direction going forward. Initially, India tendered for 2.5 million tonnes but have so far only received offers for less than half of this requirement. Further offers are anticipated by Friday morning.

European TTF gas values have continued to fall with the latest trades between €125/t spot and €150/t for February. These values will allow European producers to restart production on AN but likely at a much-reduced pace. Exports could be restricted as European domestic markets will need to fulfil their own requirements as a priority. We must, however, be mindful of the fact that Europe hasn't experienced any winter yet, so volatility will be a huge factor for a while to come.

• Liquid

Frontier recommends including Limus® Clear in your liquid fertiliser application in the spring. The benefits include an improved nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of up to 7% through reducing ammonia emissions by up to 98%.

It is beneficial to the environment and supports the Clean Air Policy. For growers looking to the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) as a funding opportunity, this will become important.

Growers who use Limus® Clear can also see yield enhancements of up to 4%. Limus® Clear is also fully compatible with all liquid UAN grades. It stacks two highly effective active ingredients and can be added only when required, leaving the grower to decide the best time for application.

Using Limus® Clear can help you protect your high-value liquid product being lost through volatilisation and can help ensure you see the maximum return on your cropping.

• PKs/NPKs

PK and NPK markets remain quiet as autumn establishment is the main priority at present. Current markets have temporarily softened in value allowing those who still need to buy their autumn and spring requirements to buy at competitive levels and see a good return on investment for their crops given 2023 grain and oilseed values. Demand is expected to be lower this coming year, but we would urge all our growers to ensure that their field indices are kept at offtake replacement levels.

Get in touch

Please speak to your local Frontier contact or email us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. for more information or advice related to any of the topics and services mentioned in this report.