Frontrunner - 3rd May 2019

WHEAT

• Offered market as sellers exit

Old crop markets have slipped lower during the week as more abundant supplies of both feed wheat and quality wheat seek demand. Buyers have taken the majority of their old crop cover now, however, the transition month of July to new crop could still prove interesting. Confidence grows that the UK balance sheet will have ample grains to service summer demand, therefore dampening any predicted volatility.

• Wheat prospects grow

As the prospects for wheat look increasingly promising the dynamics of the global market have changed, leaving the outlook bearish with the current benign weather conditions. EU crops look to be over-valued versus other origins such as US and Russian supplies, which also means UK markets remain uncompetitive to exports with the prospect of further crop production increases.re... 

BARLEY

• Dry grounds remains biggest concern

The new crop malting barley market has remained dominated by concerns around dry conditions. The market has been focussed on both forecast and actual rainfall, with very little trade happening. The rain that some areas received this week was very welcome but showers were localised and unease around the moisture deficit continues.

• Managing risk

With plenty of uncertainty in the next year, we can expect volatility in the barley market and pools will continue to help manage the risk of marketing crops. Frontier's feed and malting barley pools remain open. Please contact your farm trader for more information.

​OILSEED RAPE

• Flat domestic markets

We've seen little change in domestic prices this week, with market activity very limited on both old and new crop positions. The UK market is being held in equilibrium – boosted by concerns over exceptionally dry domestic growing conditions which inevitably lead to slow farmer selling but, at the same time, pressured downwards by weak global markets.

• Growing oilseeds global supply

US soybean markets have been finding new contract lows this week. It is now clear that the South American oilseeds harvest is going to be large this year and there is pressure on export markets, largely from aggressive Argentine sellers. A further blow to markets is the wet weather currently being experienced in the key arable states in the US. It looks likely that we will see a switch from corn plantings to beans in the US as the spring planting period season gets later. As an example, there is currently 20% of the Mississippi bean crop planted. Last year this figure stood at 34% on the same date and the 10-year average is for 43% to be planted.

• Optimism for a trade deal

There are hopes that there will soon be a resolution to the US/China trade dispute. President Trump and Xi Jinping are rumoured to be arranging a summit meeting for next week which could see an agreement signed off. However, there have been plenty of false dawns on this already so it will be interesting to see what happens.

 PULSES

• Good crop progress

Cooler temperatures and showers are certainly favouring the growing pulse crop. In all regions winter beans are looking in excellent condition, with early crops above knee height and flowering already starting lower down the stems. Both spring peas and beans have responded well to the recent rainfall and, with more rain in the forecast, we see no crop concerns.

• Market opportunities

Pulse markets remain very quiet with few reported trades. As concerns fade, it is a good time to look at marketing some of the crop. Please contact your local Frontier farm trader for further details of current pulse marketing schemes. 

 FERTILISER

• Nitrogen

The top-up market in arable areas continues to create interest and demand, with nitrogen products available for prompt delivery in all areas.

Grassland demand has really started to build, with farmers looking to push grass production as hard as possible.

• Urea

In previous years we have normally seen new season prices for granular urea by now but, with current FOB values still climbing and a new Indian tender being announced, importers have decided not to start offering tonnes based on these current levels. Doing so would put product on farm above £260/t. It may be some time before we see levels below £250 and, at this point, it is hard to see them coming back to the levels seen in the past couple of years.

• Final applications

View markets, set price alerts, manage contracts and take advantage of extended trading hours with MyCropMarketing, Frontier's online grain marketing platform.