By midweek, European wheat markets established new contract lows and extended their 2024 price decline.
Slow demand, uninterrupted wheat exports from the Black Sea and no tangible weather issues has seen London wheat futures shed £25/t in value since the end of 2023. There seems little in sight at this stage to arrest the current trend.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat prices continued to fall this week, extending the decline that has prevailed since the beginning of 2024. The Paris and London wheat futures markets both fell to new contract lows - the lowest prices seen since July 2021. Over supply and slow demand have encouraged speculative selling, with managed money traders holding record short positions in the Paris market.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
This week UK wheat futures have fallen to new contract lows despite support for US and European wheat markets.
UK feed wheat prices remain around £10/t too expensive to compete for export market share. Traditional UK feed wheat EU export destinations, such as Spain and Ireland, continue to find cheaper offers from other origins and there is no shortage of sales opportunity should prices become competitive.
The EU has so far imported 5.4 million tonnes of wheat - 3.65 million tonnes of that has come from Ukraine. UK exports remain stagnant at less than 130,000 tonnes shipped for the first half of the season, signalling a potential carryover of over three million tonnes of stock into next season.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE) for 2024, presenting a bearish set of data for both wheat and corn. Subsequently, futures wheat prices dropped sharply and both the Paris and London markets established new contract lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week world wheat markets have continued the new year in decent shape, as Russia continues to dominate wheat export share by under cutting other origins.
Paris wheat futures fell to new contract lows under the weight of old crop wheat supplies, despite concerns for 2024 production potential. In its latest tender to buy wheat, the General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 420,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for delivery through February and March at the Russian floor price $265 FOB. There was just one French offer which, including freight, was about $17/t too expensive to compete with the Russian sales, highlighting the competitive challenges in world trade.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
The new year hasn't been positive for wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened on the first trading day with heavy losses, as speculative funds started to rebuild short positions. European markets followed US markets lower, with Paris wheat futures setting new contract lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat futures markets are drifting into the festive period, with little change in value but trading above the season's lows.
There has been no shortage of international trade, however, with Saudi Arabia buying 1.3 million tonnes and Egypt securing 480,000 tonnes in the week before Christmas.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
This week world markets dropped lower, ending last week's strong run of prices in US wheat futures.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has lost almost half the gains it made after China purchased 1.1 million tonnes of US wheat, meanwhile Black Sea origins reinforced dominance in world trade.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week, China - the world's largest wheat producing country - has put pen to paper with US wheat exporters. Published sales data showed US traders selling around one million tonnes of US wheat to the country and in the process triggered a sharp price rally. As a result of this, the short covering launched Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures 15% higher from the previous week's multi-month lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Earlier this week, Paris wheat futures dropped to their lowest level in over two years following disappointing export news.
Up to Sunday 26th November, the latest trade data from Brussels put EU wheat exports up to 11.995 million tonnes - 18% behind last year when 14.677 million tonnes had been shipped in the same period.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.
World wheat markets have come under further selling pressure this week, with little to no fresh bullish features to be seen.
Whilst demand slows, an improvement in the weather and crop ratings has encouraged speculative funds to build on their short positions in agricultural markets.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Last week's price spike because of Black Sea supply concerns and confusion over a cap on Russian grain exports seems a distant memory.
The plentiful nearby physical wheat supply is again weighing on markets and whilst Russian exports continue to power ahead, the EU and US are left trailing in its wake. Russia is expected to have its poorest performing month in November since the start of the season, but despite that the country is likely to ship about four million tonnes of wheat as it continues to dominate world trade.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Luncinda Redgate.
This week has brought more volatility across the US and European wheat markets.
On 3rd November, London International LIFFE (Financial Futures and Options Exchange) closed at £200.50/t. Since then, London futures traded in a £7.05/t range between £205.00/t and £197.95/t before closing last night at £201.05/t.
MATIF (Marché à Terme International de France) followed a similar pattern, closing at €240.00/t on 3rd November. Futures traded in a €8.25/t range between €245.00/t and €236.75/t before closing at €239.75/t last night.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
It has been a relatively quiet trade week, with a lot of Europe out of the market for All Saints Day on Wednesday. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) remained open, but it was very quiet.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
During the recent visit from Storm Babet, exceptional levels of rainfall fell in a short period and saturated a lot of land in many parts of the UK. The concern now – particularly with more rain on the way – is the interruption caused to drilling progress, with some fields already destined for spring cropping. Crops drilled more recently have also been affected by waterlogging and significant runoff, which causes ruts and the loss of seed.
If you've found you're experiencing some of these issues in the aftermath of such severe rainfall, you're probably wondering what the best course of action is. Depending on your situation, there are a few options that could still mean you're able to get a crop in the ground and off to a good start.
European wheat futures prices were notably lower this week with little fresh trade news to enthuse buying. Amid strong Black Sea competition, the disappointing EU wheat export pace is behind last season and is leading to concerns that a burdensome carry out will come into fruition. Whilst analysts say there haven't yet been any Chinese vessels to collect recently bought French wheat for the week ending 22nd October, the EU still managed to ship 520,000 of wheat. Cumulative shipments have reached 9.334 million tonnes which compares to the 11.984 million tonnes shipped this time last year - although data is not complete.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
The current wet conditions mean slow progress for cereal drilling, with some areas of the UK more severely affected than others. Naturally, such delays are having a subsequent impact on pre-emergence herbicide plans and timings.
The wet weather may mean you're unable to travel on fields, or that your seedbeds cannot receive a herbicide treatment. Even if you can get crops in the ground, imminent rain reduces the chance of applying pre-emergence herbicides within 48 hours of drilling - the optimum timing for grassweed control.
Wheat futures markets came under pressure again this week, extending recent losses under the weight of fresh export sales from Russia. .
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the markets with its latest US wheat production estimates. The data showed a marked increase over its previous figures, ahead of the most upbeat pre-report trader estimates, which resulted in a sharp fall in wheat futures.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Russia's appetite for world wheat export market share continues to be the primary bearish market driver. The latest estimates see Russia shipping 5.1 million tonnes of wheat in September and although this is 200,000 tonnes below last month, the first quarter of the season will now see a staggering 14.8 million tonnes shipped. On average, this figure is more than one million tonnes each week. There's also a quest for future sales, made evident by the news of intergovernmental discussions with Egypt for the supply of another one million tonnes of wheat.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
