This week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It added weight and area to both US wheat and corn crops. The increasing supply of these crops triggered a wave of selling and futures prices went back down to early June levels.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) struck a bearish blow to global grain markets late last Friday, announcing a shock increase in the 2023-24 US corn planted and harvested area. This came following an increasingly optimistic view on yield potential for the crop, with the recent arrival of widespread rain across the US corn belt following a sustained spell of dryness. The USDA now estimates that US farmers have planted 94.1 million acres of corn - up two million tonnes on its previous estimate - and that they will be able to harvest 86.3 million acres, which is up 9% on last year. This, combined with its estimated yield, would see the US corn crop at 10 million tonnes higher than the estimate made in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report published in June, which was set at 387.75 million tonnes.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing executive, Faye Lee.
The week started with news that the Wagner Group's attempted coup against the Russian government had failed. In addition, Sterling has weakened against the Euro over the past week while it has strengthened against the US dollar.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. This week's report is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
From early 2023, speculative funds had built near record short positions in agriculture futures markets. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market alone received over 120,000 contracts which is the equivalent of over 16 million tonnes. This process helped wheat prices decrease to multi-month lows at the end of May, but the current month has seen a price recovery.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
The world's wheat futures fell to new multi-month lows last week, with London wheat dropping to its lowest value since mid-January 2022. However, a combination of weather-related factors and concerns for the security of supplies from the Black Sea helped deliver five consecutive days of positive closing prices and an overall gain of around 9% from this low.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
For most of this week wheat values have remained on the defensive with London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Marche A Terme International de France (MATIF) all falling to their lowest point in over a year. Without much bullish news traders continued to add to their short positions after the small bounce in prices last week.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat markets continued to fall this week, following Russia's agreement to extend the Black Sea export corridor deal until the 17th July. Prospects of a continued flow of Ukrainian wheat have kept speculative sellers active. Encouraging data for improved crop potential in both the US and EU added to the market negativity. US winter wheat condition gained two points to 31% now rated 'good/excellent' and US corn planting reached 81% completion - up 16 points on the week, which is six points ahead of the five-year average.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world's 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Last week's wheat price gains were quickly lost this week as the weight of old crop stocks, demand concerns and improving 2023 production prospects motivated selling interest. Despite uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor deal and increased hostility from Russia towards Ukraine, eastern EU states are heavy with previously imported Ukrainian supplies.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. This week's report is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
World wheat futures dropped again this week, extending their 2023 losing streak. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) figures dropped to their lowest since December 2020 and London old crop futures struck a new contract low which was almost half the peak price it achieved during May last year.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week, Canada's national statistical office, Statistics Canada (StatsCan), published its first look at 2023 Canadian crop potential and farmer planting intentions. Canadian farmers are set to increase their wheat area by around 6% on last year, to 27 million acres. If realised, this would be the largest drilled area since 2001. This potential boost to global supplies exceeded trade expectations and added to the market price negativity.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
This week, London wheat futures fell to their lowest since the beginning of 2022. Lower-than-expected use in both the animal feed and bioethanol sectors has created a heavy domestic balance sheet. This, combined with scarce export opportunity, has put pressure on prices and led to a notable discount on new crop.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
London wheat futures fell lower again this week, with old crop prices falling close to multi-month lows, the lowest since the 22nd of March. Selling was encouraged by lower world markets and what is likely to be a significant UK carry over stock from this season into next.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
Wheat futures markets continued to rally until mid-week, making impressive gains from last week's multi-month lows. The London wheat market added £19/t which encouraged further farmer selling, but with limited interest in physical wheat buying, domestic prices subsequently dropped again towards the end of the week.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by Lucinda Redgate.
Wheat markets have endured a volatile week's trading with focus on the talks between representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the UN as they discussed the renewal of the Black Sea export deal.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat futures markets continued to fall this week and have now lost 14% of their value since the end of 2022. The primary drivers for the market negativity are twofold. Firstly, the ongoing competition from cheap Russian wheat exports following Russia's record 2022 wheat crop; and secondly, a strong belief the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN will renew at the end of next week. If this is the case, Ukraine will continue to ship cheaply offered wheat, corn and other grains on world markets. This makes it likely the US, the EU and other major exporters will be left with burdensome year end stocks.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
European wheat markets have fallen sharply this week, dropping back to price levels seen towards the end of last month. Markets had previously risen due to concerns around the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN not likely to renew next month, which will be when the timeline for the previous agreement comes to an end. Recent comments from Russian officials suggested some dissatisfaction that the deal was not working in its favour. However, in a public address this week, President Putin made no comments to indicate the deal will not be renewed. Despite this, a date for renegotiation has not yet been set. Ukraine will ask Turkey and the UN for a one-year extension to the export deal and to expand it to include the ports of Mykolaiv.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week world wheat markets continued their February recovery, shaking off the January blues. London wheat futures reached their highest level since 6th January, following European markets higher. The euro has been weak compared to the US dollar, with a 2% drop in value from last week's ten-month high. This allows EU wheat to become more competitive and a key factor in trying to secure export sales to Algeria in its latest tender. Official EU wheat exports are now seen at 19 million tonnes, although private analysts estimate shipments at least one million tonnes ahead of that figure from an overall surplus of 30 million tonnes.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
US wheat production prospects for the 2023 harvest remain in question following a period of challenging weather conditions, also taking into account an increase in the planted area. In January, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated US farmers had planted 36.95 million acres - an 11% increase on the year. Although others estimate less, if this growth is accurate there is a question around how much of that area will provide a crop.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Wheat futures saw further aggressive selling on Monday which extended the negative price run that began in early 2023. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped to their lowest level since October 2021 with sellers encouraged by weekend rains and snow that fell across much of the US winter wheat producing states.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
