Despite a lack of fresh dynamic market drivers, US wheat futures have seen volatile trade over the past three trading days following their Thanksgiving break last Thursday. On Friday they rallied 20 cents per bushel – equivalent to over £5 per tonne – which raised overall gains to more than 10% since mid November. This was supposedly triggered by cuts to yields in the primary wheat production areas of Argentina.

However, yesterday all of the gains made on Friday were lost as it became apparent that US wheat is too expensive to capture any substantial share of the current export opportunities.

This week French wheat futures rallied to highs not seen since mid July. The strong EU export pace continued to progress and has now reached 10.77 million tonnes – 3.7 million tonnes ahead of last year. 

Slow farmer selling and ongoing wet weather conditions which are delaying the French corn harvest and winter wheat planting are both contributing factors to the rise in wheat prices. However, the French are still enjoying more favourable planting conditions than we are in the UK. By 25^th November, wheat drilling in France had advanced 6 points during the week to 80% complete, but the crop condition fell 3 points during the week to 75% rated 'good' to 'excellent'.  

America's benchmark CBOT traded almost 16 cents firmer on Monday, mainly due to short covering ahead of this week's Thanksgiving holiday. There was also some spill over support from the EU where news of delayed drilling continues to filter through. The US corn harvest is now 84% complete with more heavy snow forecast for the long weekend. 

Despite this, a common theme continues to burden US wheat and corn prices in a distinct lack of price competitiveness on the global market. For wheat, Europe and the Black Sea continue to mop up the bulk of demand while for corn, cheaper cargoes from South America and Ukraine are the main competition. 

Official figures from France illustrate the issues that the current weather pattern is having on 2020 harvest potential in the west of Europe. In its weekly update on Friday, FranceAgriMer advised that French farmers had only advanced their winter wheat planting by 3% to 74% complete, compared to 97% this time last year. Additionally, there was a sharp drop in the crop ratings, with 78% seen as 'good' or 'excellent' which is down 6 points on the week and 4 points on last year.

The UK enjoyed a few dry days earlier this week, allowing land work to resume in some areas. Winter wheat drilling has progressed where conditions have allowed, whilst vast areas of the worst rain-affected counties have remained sodden. 

We've experienced a quite extraordinary start to the cropping year and as I look at news reports showing land under water I can only imagine the extent of the challenges being faced by some farmers. By now, in England, most would have hoped to finish drilling never mind not even started in some cases.

Understandably and economically getting a winter cereal crop is still the goal right up to February, depending on the variety, for those who can. However, for some that ship has already sailed and a new 'Plan B' will be the reality. For many, even those not so dramatically affected, some change of cropped area is underway with a shift towards spring crops inevitable. 

North Africa remained an active buyer, with Tunisia buying 75,000 tonnes earlier this week and Algeria – traditionally supplied by France – holding a tender for January delivery.

The latest data puts EU wheat exports more than 50% ahead of this time last year with over 10 million tonnes shipped, although this is seen as an underestimate. However, this pace will need to be maintained to keep markets buoyant. Analysts, Stratégie Grains estimate EU-28 wheat exports at 28.8 million tonnes – 8 million tonnes higher than last year. 

Russian wheat exporters regained their competitive edge this week, securing significant sales to Egypt for delivery early January. Egypt bought 465,000 tonnes at just over $232 per tonne including freight and, although the two cheapest cargoes were from Ukraine, all the remaining 345,000 tonnes were of Russian origin. 

Russia was clearly determined to maintain their status as the leading supplier to Egypt, after having lost out to France in the previous week's tender.

Concern over new crop wheat planting has driven prices this week. With an estimated winter wheat planted area of just 50%, compared to 95% this time last year, new crop wheat values moved up £7/mt.

Old crop wheat values have followed the new crop as farm selling remains light and domestic consumers still need plenty of cover for the balance of the crop year. 

Brexit uncertainty and winter drilling delays in the UK continue to add volatility to wheat markets. Last weekend's Brexit extension significantly widened the window for tariff-free exports to the EU, which was seen by some as a bullish flag. 

In addition to this, the persistent deluge of rainfall continues to delay the drilling campaign with progress varying from one location and land-type to the next, so farmer selling of 2019 and 2020 crop has naturally slowed. As a result, London futures traded to £148.55 midweek which, along with new crop futures, was their highest level since mid-August.