By midweek, European wheat markets established new contract lows and extended their 2024 price decline.
Slow demand, uninterrupted wheat exports from the Black Sea and no tangible weather issues has seen London wheat futures shed £25/t in value since the end of 2023. There seems little in sight at this stage to arrest the current trend.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Throughout 2023, the weather played its part for many maize growers. Adverse conditions made the task of growing a successful crop interesting to say the least.
Maize sowing was delayed in many areas due to a very wet March and April. It was then followed by drought conditions into June where the heat set maize on its way to record harvest yields. July arrived and so did the rain - just in time for cereal harvest! It almost feels like it hasn't stopped raining since.
World wheat prices continued to fall this week, extending the decline that has prevailed since the beginning of 2024. The Paris and London wheat futures markets both fell to new contract lows - the lowest prices seen since July 2021. Over supply and slow demand have encouraged speculative selling, with managed money traders holding record short positions in the Paris market.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
This week UK wheat futures have fallen to new contract lows despite support for US and European wheat markets.
UK feed wheat prices remain around £10/t too expensive to compete for export market share. Traditional UK feed wheat EU export destinations, such as Spain and Ireland, continue to find cheaper offers from other origins and there is no shortage of sales opportunity should prices become competitive.
The EU has so far imported 5.4 million tonnes of wheat - 3.65 million tonnes of that has come from Ukraine. UK exports remain stagnant at less than 130,000 tonnes shipped for the first half of the season, signalling a potential carryover of over three million tonnes of stock into next season.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE) for 2024, presenting a bearish set of data for both wheat and corn. Subsequently, futures wheat prices dropped sharply and both the Paris and London markets established new contract lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
As we enter early January and temperatures begin to fall, foraging time for farmland birds is at its lowest and food sources start to run out. This period is often referred to as the 'hungry gap' and usually lasts from December through to April - the hardest time for many of our beloved wild bird species to survive.
As we enter this peak period for food requirements, your carefully managed wild bird seed plots will start looking thinner and a lot of the seed will have fallen to the ground and been eaten. The good news is that growers and land managers are increasingly taking up the option of supplementary feeding, either as part of an existing Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) scheme, Countryside Stewardship (CS) scheme, or simply because it's a great thing to do.
This week world wheat markets have continued the new year in decent shape, as Russia continues to dominate wheat export share by under cutting other origins.
Paris wheat futures fell to new contract lows under the weight of old crop wheat supplies, despite concerns for 2024 production potential. In its latest tender to buy wheat, the General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 420,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for delivery through February and March at the Russian floor price $265 FOB. There was just one French offer which, including freight, was about $17/t too expensive to compete with the Russian sales, highlighting the competitive challenges in world trade.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
The new year hasn't been positive for wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened on the first trading day with heavy losses, as speculative funds started to rebuild short positions. European markets followed US markets lower, with Paris wheat futures setting new contract lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
World wheat futures markets are drifting into the festive period, with little change in value but trading above the season's lows.
There has been no shortage of international trade, however, with Saudi Arabia buying 1.3 million tonnes and Egypt securing 480,000 tonnes in the week before Christmas.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
This week world markets dropped lower, ending last week's strong run of prices in US wheat futures.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has lost almost half the gains it made after China purchased 1.1 million tonnes of US wheat, meanwhile Black Sea origins reinforced dominance in world trade.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
This week, China - the world's largest wheat producing country - has put pen to paper with US wheat exporters. Published sales data showed US traders selling around one million tonnes of US wheat to the country and in the process triggered a sharp price rally. As a result of this, the short covering launched Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures 15% higher from the previous week's multi-month lows.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Ollie Wilson.
Earlier this week, Paris wheat futures dropped to their lowest level in over two years following disappointing export news.
Up to Sunday 26th November, the latest trade data from Brussels put EU wheat exports up to 11.995 million tonnes - 18% behind last year when 14.677 million tonnes had been shipped in the same period.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by agronomist, Alex Pope.
Five new varieties of winter wheat have been added to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) Recommended List for 2024. These new arrivals offer valuable alternatives for planting next autumn and bring some much-needed diversity to the feed wheat sector, breathing fresh life into the tired looking Group 1 bread-making and Group 3 biscuit markets.
World wheat markets have come under further selling pressure this week, with little to no fresh bullish features to be seen.
Whilst demand slows, an improvement in the weather and crop ratings has encouraged speculative funds to build on their short positions in agricultural markets.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
Last week's price spike because of Black Sea supply concerns and confusion over a cap on Russian grain exports seems a distant memory.
The plentiful nearby physical wheat supply is again weighing on markets and whilst Russian exports continue to power ahead, the EU and US are left trailing in its wake. Russia is expected to have its poorest performing month in November since the start of the season, but despite that the country is likely to ship about four million tonnes of wheat as it continues to dominate world trade.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Luncinda Redgate.
This week has brought more volatility across the US and European wheat markets.
On 3rd November, London International LIFFE (Financial Futures and Options Exchange) closed at £200.50/t. Since then, London futures traded in a £7.05/t range between £205.00/t and £197.95/t before closing last night at £201.05/t.
MATIF (Marché à Terme International de France) followed a similar pattern, closing at €240.00/t on 3rd November. Futures traded in a €8.25/t range between €245.00/t and €236.75/t before closing at €239.75/t last night.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.
It has been a relatively quiet trade week, with a lot of Europe out of the market for All Saints Day on Wednesday. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) remained open, but it was very quiet.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
During the recent visit from Storm Babet, exceptional levels of rainfall fell in a short period and saturated a lot of land in many parts of the UK. The concern now – particularly with more rain on the way – is the interruption caused to drilling progress, with some fields already destined for spring cropping. Crops drilled more recently have also been affected by waterlogging and significant runoff, which causes ruts and the loss of seed.
If you've found you're experiencing some of these issues in the aftermath of such severe rainfall, you're probably wondering what the best course of action is. Depending on your situation, there are a few options that could still mean you're able to get a crop in the ground and off to a good start.
European wheat futures prices were notably lower this week with little fresh trade news to enthuse buying. Amid strong Black Sea competition, the disappointing EU wheat export pace is behind last season and is leading to concerns that a burdensome carry out will come into fruition. Whilst analysts say there haven't yet been any Chinese vessels to collect recently bought French wheat for the week ending 22nd October, the EU still managed to ship 520,000 of wheat. Cumulative shipments have reached 9.334 million tonnes which compares to the 11.984 million tonnes shipped this time last year - although data is not complete.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate.
World wheat futures markets have been choppy this week, but have edged forward and recovered from the lows seen at the end of last month.
Speculative funds holding significant short positions have taken some cover because of the uncertainty around increasing tensions in the Middle East, as well as the rise in other commodity prices such as crude oil.
You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Whiteman.
