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European prices have steadily declined to levels last seen in mid-September as a push of cheap exports from key producers has occurred. Egypt's General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) and Algeria have tendered for Dec/Jan wheat shipments with Russia leading the supply race by pricing significantly below competing origins. Continuation of Russia's wheat export pace (3.5 million tonnes per month) will hinge on the integrity of the grain corridor deal, which is currently the focus of the market.

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Benchmark global wheat prices lifted 6% on Monday in a knee-jerk reaction to news from the weekend that Putin was withdrawing from the safe Black Sea corridor agreement. Consequently, insurers refused to grant fresh cover for vessels that were returning to Ukraine which caused concern for the 22 boats anchored in Ukrainian ports waiting to be loaded - a further 101 are awaiting inspection. London futures rallied from £12 to a high of £293, which ignited UK farmers to market large volumes at prices not seen for a month.

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Markets slipped lower this week but further problems for Southern Hemisphere wheat production helped generate a mild recovery on Thursday. In southeastern Australia, persistent rain and consequential flooding across thousands of acres of arable land is damaging yield and quality. At this stage it is uncertain what impact this will have on total Australian wheat production. Recent estimates are at 34 million tonnes which would be the country's second ever highest crop after last year's record of 36.3 million tonnes.

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The possibility that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed has influenced markets this week. However, whether this renewal will be realised remains in question. President Putin has reportedly commented that a recent attack on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, was a result of weapons that were smuggled via the corridor and therefore he is unsure whether a renewal of the agreement is in the best interests of Russia.

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Wheat futures prices surged to a three-month high on Monday. Speculators and trade shorts raced for cover due to the Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in many cities across Ukraine, fearful of an escalation of the conflict and an interruption to exports from the Black Sea. However, markets subsequently eased lower as shipments continued. Comments in the media that Russia may cancel an export quota also triggered selling, although with a record 150 million tonne grain crop - 100 million tonnes of which is wheat – this hardly suggests any restriction for exports is necessary.

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Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its final 2022 US wheat production estimate and surprised markets by cutting over 130 million bushels from its September estimate, which was in line with average trade expectations. The USDA sees the crop down to 1,650 million bushels; the equivalent of 44.9 million tonnes. This reduction in the US wheat production estimate coupled with lower-than-expected corn and wheat stocks in the US (as of 1^st September) saw futures prices make sharp gains. The rally continued into the beginning of this week.

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World wheat markets continued to rise this week, driven higher by heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Threats to the longevity of the safe Black Sea export corridor amidst the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the Kremlin has encouraged further short covering and speculative buying of wheat futures. Over 210 vessels carrying agricultural produce have now left Ukrainian Black Sea ports since the UN-brokered deal was signed with Russia, but there is increasing doubt the deal will extend beyond the expiry of the initial agreement in November.

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London wheat futures rallied to their highest point since the 11^thJuly this week as a result of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin said he was mobilising 300,000 additional reserves and announced other activity that has concerned markets. The comments from Putin saw Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rise by over 7% as the shorts covered their positions fearing disruption to essential Ukrainian agricultural produce exports.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Sophie Powell.

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The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September updates to the World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Monday afternoon, which helped wheat futures prices rally to a two-month high mid-week. However, lower corn production estimates currently provide the main price driver for wheat.

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Much has already been said about the weather that we've experienced in recent months and even with some rain predicted, it is likely to be a challenging drilling season for many. For me, the weather highlights the importance of being able to understand your soils and use that information to make changes to your strategy. Whether it is the creation of the best seedbed in difficult circumstances, or the adjustment of your seed rates to attempt to counteract the conditions, often even small changes can make a big difference.

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Wheat futures moved sharply higher earlier this week, although prices remained in the trading range that has prevailed for the past two months. Traders reacted to lower corn production estimates for both the US and EU, the result of prolonged dry and hot weather conditions that have proved damaging for yield potential.

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Wheat prices moved higher early in the week in response to strong gains in US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, which rose to a two-month high. Corn futures rose in reaction to disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour as it progressed through the main corn-producing states. Iowa is the world's number one corn producer, yet yields from Western Iowa were reported at 181.12 bu/ac, which has fallen from 183.96 bu/ac last year and is lower than the three-year average of 183.47 bu/ac.

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London wheat futures fell to their lowest level for almost five months this week following the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published late last Friday afternoon. The USDA increased its estimate for world wheat production by eight million tonnes on last month's estimate to a new world total of 779.6 million tonnes. If realised, this will be a record.

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By the 7^th August, EU wheat exports reached 2.49 million tonnes; this is marginally ahead of last year. However, Brussels state the data is incomplete and private analysts see shipments 30% ahead of last year. French shipments alone are thought to be at least half a million tonnes understated.  . Major world wheat importers have all sourced a significant proportion of their purchases from freely available EU supplies due to the continued challenges and restrictions on Ukrainian and Russian origins.

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One grain ship leaving a Ukrainian Black Sea port was sufficient for world wheat futures markets to come under notable selling pressure this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat fell to a six-month low.

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This week, the world's wheat futures markets have recovered all the losses they took last Friday. Prices then fell sharply due to Russia and Ukraine signing a deal with Turkey and the United Nations (UN). The deal set out to ship trapped wheat and other grains and oilseeds from Ukraine's Black Sea ports.  However, the market is now reacting to the reality that shipping through these ports will, for some time, be a slow process as there are challenges in securing the resources needed to resume operations whilst the hostilities with Russia continue.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is read by farm trader, Lucinda Redgate. 

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On Tuesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July updates to its World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report. Revisions were relatively mild but continued long liquidation on futures markets was encouraged by increases to production estimates and stocks for US wheat and corn, as well as cuts to world demand figures for each commodity resulting in a higher stock than the previous month.

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With harvest just beginning, now seems a sensible time to draw breath and assess the season before harvest gets in full swing followed in short order by establishing next year's crops.

And what a season it's been. Yes, there have been weather events to talk about, especially the dry April and for some also the first half of May and most of June, but these pale in comparison to the economic impacts we've seen in the last 12 months.No more so than in my world of fertiliser, where an initial new season price for AN back in June 2021 - at 81p/kg N (£280/t) - was considered by some to be too expensive, only to then rise dramatically during the season to an eye watering £2.68/kg N (£925/t) at the peak.

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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) adopted a change to its method for wheat import purchases this week, entering into direct talks with exporters in preference to where it usually holds a general purchase tender. Egypt bought around 444,000 tonnes, adding to the 815,000 tonnes it bought last week, split between Russia with 214,000 tonnes, France with 170,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes from Romania. 

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The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) made its largest single wheat purchase for over 13 years this week, buying 815,000 tonnes for shipment during August, September and October. Last weekend, the Egyptian Minister for Supply and Internal Trade said his country needed to import ten million tonnes of wheat over the next six months while having secured 3.9 million tonnes from local farmers and having wheat reserves sufficient for almost six months.

You can also listen to the Frontrunner podcast - press play to hear the latest report. The report this week is ready by marketing assistant, Becca Russell.